Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Fifth Francqui Lecture: Econometric Modeling of Climate Change

The video of my fifth and final Francqui lecture on the economic modeling of climate change is now on Youtube:  


The lecture begins by introducing the issue of global climate change. The first image of the Earth's energy balance is from an IPCC assessment report. Probably, the 4th Assessment Report. The graph of global temperature is the Berkeley Earth combined land and sea series. The graph of CO2 concentration is based on the data we used in our Journal of Econometrics paper updated with recent observations from Hawaii. The original source of the global CO2 emissions series is the now defunct CDIAC website updated from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Following that are three charts from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. World sulfur dioxide emissions are from the CEDS datasite.

The next section – "Why Econometrics" – opens with a graph of the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions, which I put together from World Bank, International Energy Agency, and BP data sources.

The following section – "Do GHG Emissions Cause Climate Change?" starts with original research using the temperature and CO2 time series in the previous graphs. The CO2 concentration acts as a proxy variable for all radiative forcing in this analysis. It then goes on to present results from my 2014 paper with Robert Kaufmann published in Climatic Change. Details of the data are given in that paper.

Finally, I presented my paper coauthored with Stephan Bruns and Zsuzsanna Csereklyei, which was published in the Journal of Econometrics.

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