Sunday, September 11, 2016

Progress on New Climate Modeling Paper

As I mentioned a couple of posts ago, we are working on a new climate modeling paper. We just started estimating models. This graph shows predicted ocean heat content in units of 10^22 Joules, blue, and a 5 year moving average of observed heat content in the top 2000m of the ocean (which is only available from 1959*):

We only used data on global temperature and radiative forcing and the most basic estimator possible to produce this prediction. It's in the right ballpark in terms of the increase in heat content and even some of the wiggles match up (the levels are "arbitrary"). Diagnostic statistics look fairly good too. I think we can only improve on this prediction using more sophisticated estimators. Watch this space :)

* NOAA assign the middle year of each 5 year window as the date of the data. We assign the last year of each 5 year window instead.

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