Saturday, April 16, 2011

Omumbo et al. Revisit Temperature at Kericho, Kenya

Last year I wrote a series of blogposts about the controversy over malaria and climate change in highland East Africa, and most specifically at Kericho, Kenya. Our previous research had shown that there was no signficant trend in temperature in various locations across Eastern Africa and so the increase in malaria morbidity was unlikely to be due to climate change. Our work was challenged and more recent papers claimed that there were in fact trends. We found that among other things newer versions of the CRU database did show trends in temperature. Now Omumbo et al. have analysed a cleaned up version of the data from the weather station in Kericho.

We were reluctant to use this data previously because of the apparent breaks in the series. The graph shows an apparent increase in temperature of around 3/4 of a degree over 30 years. So I think it is settled now that, at least when more recent data is included, temperature has increased at Kericho. The twist is that in the years since our 2002 publications the incidence of malaria has dramatically reduced.

No comments:

Post a Comment