Sunday, October 30, 2011
Foundation Seminar Slides
As I previously wrote, my "foundation seminar" is this Tuesday, 1st November at Crawford School at 12:30pm (yes, Melbourne Cup Day). There will also be some lunch/drinks before that. The slides are now online. I'm thinking to do a blogpost series on the stylized facts after I give the seminar. Maybe someday this will be a paper too.
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Excellent slides - but a couple are missing to show the future impact of the campaign to increase energy prices here and elsewhere (55% increase in cost per kwH here in Canberra since 2003-04 even before the carbon tax kicks in). This is a complete reversal of the trend for lower energy costs from 1750 to 2000.
ReplyDeleteAs I discussed at my presentation it could be that the falling price of alternative energy will result in no change in the trends in my presentation. Or maybe they will finally reverse...
ReplyDeleteDream on! What falling prices of alternative energy? PV from $570 to $300 per MWh? Wind, from $214 to $150 per MWh? while coal with carbon tax at $23 costs only $99-$115. Your presentation's main defect if I may say so is its lack of consideration of pricing issues.
ReplyDeleteHowever, if you will allow a joke, I am sure the Crawford School's Jotzo believes you only have to point planes at the wind and the resulting reverse thrust will fly them backwards to Europe! For why else would you levy a carbon tax on air travel? What is the alternative aviation fuel such a tax is supposed to promote substitution to? Ah, I forgot, in Crawford's Brave New World, air travel has to be priced out of existence, along with all livestock production (Garnaut with Jotzo 2008 Fig.7.17) and all livestock and crop production (Muller, Mendelsohn, and Nordhaus, AER 2011).
Do you really believe the economic growth rates shown in your paper can be sustained with such policies? Did you hear Ehrlich on SBS this evening? He advocated zero growth. Do you?
This presentation was about history and where we are now and not about climate policies or about the future. I'm skeptical about a lot of things including solar energy and that climate policy can be as low cost as some proponents claim. But I've also been surprised at the progress made in alternative energy costs and I'm planning on doing some in depth investigation of the cost of climate policies with the ARC grant I just got today. On most of these issues I don't have a preconceived position. I'm open to evidence and doing research to answer the questions.
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