A couple of days ago I posted an update to my 2023 article on the trend in carbon emissions in China after the pandemic. That blogpost compares emissions for the whole of 2023 to those for the whole of 2019. But what happened in 2024? So far we have nine months of data, which we can compare to the first nine months of 2023.
According to Carbon Monitor, emissions have fallen by 0.6% in 2024 compared to 2023. Emissions from power generation rose by 1.6% with smaller increases in transport (0.7%) and residential (0.8%) emissions offset by a 4% fall in industrial emissions. Does this mean that Chinese emissions are peaking?
Electricity output increased by 6.3% between 2023 and 2024 so far. The increase was supplied by roughly equal increases in thermal power, hydropower, and the new renewables. The increase in hydropower is weather-related and otherwise there would have been a more significant increase in thermal power.
Coal production is only up 0.7% on last year. In the first few months of the year, coal production was lower than in the previous year but by October it was running at 6% above the level of last year.
In conclusion, the fall in emissions so far this year is probably partly due to the increase in hydroelectric output and the slow economy early in the year. This probably doesn't yet constitute a sustainable peak in emissions.
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