Thursday, May 22, 2014

Regional Kaya Identities

As well as the global Kaya identity, Chapter 5 of the WGIII IPCC report also includes regional Kaya identity graphs:

OECD-90 are the countries that were members of the OECD in 1990 and are considered to be the "developed countries" for the purpose of this study. Economies in Transition are the former Soviet Union and formerly centrally planned Eastern European economies. The remaining countries are the developing world and are split into three geographic regions.

We drew the graph for each region with the same y-axis scale so that the huge differences in growth rates between regions would be more apparent. GDP per capita grew by far more in (developing) Asia than anywhere else and grew least in the Middle East and North Africa. But emissions grew the second most in the latter region mainly because population grew fastest in that region but also because, unlike other regions, energy intensity rose over time. Emissions growth was also quite strong in Latin America because energy intensity did not decline much there. Both these regions had low energy intensity at the beginning of the period. The global pattern in changes in energy intensity reflects convergence across countries in energy intensity.

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