So if this group constituted the RBA board they would leave interest rates unchanged at 4.75%. The most recent inflation report was above the RBA's band for desired inflation but partly driven by shocks from things like banana prices. The non-mining economy really seems to be very weak at the moment as the exchange rate hits a post-float record against the USD above $US1.10. My guess is that they will remain on hold.
David Stern's Blog on Energy, the Environment, Economics, and the Science of Science
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Shadow Reserve Bank Board
CAMA is running a pilot project where a panel of Australian economists pick the Reserve Bank interest rate that they think is appropriate a few days before each RBA interest rate setting board meeting. It's not meant to be a prediction of what the RBA will do, but an indication of what they should do. Each economist can give a range of interest rates with different probabilities. August's chart is here:
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So if this group constituted the RBA board they would leave interest rates unchanged at 4.75%. The most recent inflation report was above the RBA's band for desired inflation but partly driven by shocks from things like banana prices. The non-mining economy really seems to be very weak at the moment as the exchange rate hits a post-float record against the USD above $US1.10. My guess is that they will remain on hold.
So if this group constituted the RBA board they would leave interest rates unchanged at 4.75%. The most recent inflation report was above the RBA's band for desired inflation but partly driven by shocks from things like banana prices. The non-mining economy really seems to be very weak at the moment as the exchange rate hits a post-float record against the USD above $US1.10. My guess is that they will remain on hold.
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Is this just a smaller sample than the futures market?
ReplyDeleteThe futures market is guessing what the RBA WILL do, while this group is saying what they think they SHOULD do.
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