Copenhagen Prediction Market

CEEM at UNSW has set up a prediction market for the outcomes of COP15. It looks pretty complicated - i.e. you'd need to know a lot of details or read up on them on the site to know even what many of these markets mean. And the prizes are in the form of carbon offsets. Will be interesting to see how well it works. The current most probable outcome for the the developed nations target is a reduction of less than 10%. I guess that could mean "no agreement". So why not have a zero % contract? $10-14 billion of funding for developing countries is also a most probable outcome. Looking at the different graphs - this doesn't look like an efficient market. The only trading contract for the EU-27 target is the 30-40% one...