Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Who Will Win the Nobel Prize in Economics? Update

Back in August I discussed who might win the Nobel Prize in Economics to be awarded on Monday. My pick then was Robert Barro as the most cited and not so controversial economist who had not won it yet. Others are now weighing in. Here are my comments on these suggestions:

Ernst Fehr Possible, though Kahnemann won the prize not that long ago.

Matthew Rabin Too young.

William Nordhaus Possible, though I don't consider his climate change economics work to be very deep.

Martin Weitzman I prefer him to Nordhaus, though on citations he is marginal as a Nobel Prize winner but could happen.

I also heard Nicholas Stern mentioned at lunch today. Until his recent work on climate change his citation record hasn't been at Nobel Prize level. And he only got into environmental economics in this recent period.

My pick for an environmental economics winner is Partha Dasgupta. Maybe Weitzman and Dasgupta?

All the macroeconomists mentioned are potential winners. But Gali (PhD 1989) seems too young. Gertler or Taylor is possible. Robert Shiller or even Nouriel Roubini are outside chances.

Marginal Revolution suggests Williamson and Tirole. They're possibilities too. This could be a pick if the committee decides against being topical. So this is my shortlist: Barro, Gertler, Dasgupta, Taylor, Tirole, Weitzman, Williamson.

Note that the Fehr and Rabin, or Nordhaus and Weitzman, or Taylor, Gali, and Gertler prediction is from Thomson Reuters. They didn't get the Physics or Chemistry prizes right but they did guess the Physiology/Medicine Prize.

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