Papers on Drivers and Trends

What are the most classic journal articles on global drivers and trends of greenhouse gas emissions and anthropogenic climate change? Below are some papers that mostly have a lot of citations. Obviously, I don't agree with the content of all of them, but for this purpose I want to illustrate the evolution of thought on this matter. I've included IPCC scenarios, the environmental Kuznets curve, the emissions convergence literature, and papers by natural scientists.

I'm only just getting started on putting this review together, so will welcome any suggestions! In particular is there a journal article that can stand in for the Leggett et al. 1992 report on the IS92 scenarios? (I'm not allowed to include "grey literature"). No, this is not for the IPCC.

Arrhenius, Svante (1896) On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground, Philosophical Magazine Series 5 41 (April): 237-276.

Shafik, N. (1994) Economic development and environmental quality: an econometric analysis, Oxford Economic Papers 46: 757-773.

Holtz-Eakin, Douglas and Thomas M. Selden (1995) Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth, Journal of Public Economics 57(1): 85-101.

Dietz, Thomas, and Eugene A. Rosa (1997) “Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 94 (1) (January 7): 175 -179.

Schmalensee, R., Stoker, T. M., & Judson, R. A. (1998) World carbon dioxide emissions: 1950-2050. Review of Economics and Statistics 80: 15-27.

Grübler, Arnulf, Nebojsa Nakicénovic, and David G. Victor (1999) Dynamics of energy technologies and global change, Energy Policy 27: 247-280.

Ruddiman, William F. (2003) The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago, Climatic Change 61(3): 261-293.

Strazicich, Mark C. and John A. List (2003) Are CO2 emission levels converging among industrial countries? Environmental and Resource Economics 24(3): 263-271.

Aldy, Joseph E. (2006) Per capita carbon dioxide emissions: convergence or divergence? Environmental and Resource Economics 33(4): 533-555.

Riahi, Keywan, Arnulf Grübler, Nebojsa Nakicenovic (2007) Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74: 887–935.

Raupach, Michael R., Gregg Marland, Philippe Ciais, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Gernot Klepper, Christopher B. Field (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(24): 10288-10923.

Garnaut, Ross, Stephen Howes, Frank Jotzo, and Peter Sheehan (2008) Emissions in the Platinum Age: the implications of rapid development for climate-change mitigation, Oxford Review of Economic Policy 24(2): 337-401.

Westerlund, Joakim and Syed A. Basher (2008) Testing for convergence in carbon dioxide emissions using a century of panel data, Environmental and Resource Economics 40:109–120.

Vollebergh, Herman R.J., Bertrand Melenberg, and Elbert Dijkgraaf (2009) Identifying reduced-form relations with panel data: The case of pollution and income, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 58(1): 27-42.

Henriques, Sofia Teives, and Astrid Kander (2010) “The modest environmental relief resulting from the transition to a service economy.” Ecological Economics 70 (2) (December 15): 271-282.

van Vuuren, Detlef P., Jae Edmonds, Mikiko Kainuma, Keywan Riahi, Allison Thomson, Kathy Hibbard, George C. Hurtt, Tom Kram, Volker Krey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Toshihiko Masui, Malte Meinshausen, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Steven J. Smith, and Steven K. Rose (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change 109(1-2): 5-31.