The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency has released
projections of Australian GHG emissions till 2020-30. They project that emissions will increase by 1.8% p.a. from 2010 to 2020. This is much faster growth than from 1990 to 2010. The reason is that reductions in land-clearing offset strong growth in other emissions in the latter period. And now there isn't much ability to reduce land-clearing further in the upcoming period.
The underlying assumption is that GDP will grow at 3.0% p.a. over the 2010-20 period, which implies that emissions intensity will decline at 1.2% p.a. In the 1971-2007 period I examined in my
Environmental Economics Research Hub project, energy intensity declined by 1.0% p.a. in Australia. So this number does look plausible as a BAU figure.
Hi David, I have emissions intensity declining -0.5% p.a. 1980-2006 and -0.7% p.a. 2001-2006. To meet the 5% target at 3.0% GDP growth p.a., requires an emission intensity decline of -4.3% p.a. Details:
ReplyDeletehttp://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2010.36.pdf
All best, Roger